Sat, Feb 17, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Montréal Canadiens 3, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 211 | 010 | 112 | 333 |
| VGK | 311 | 216 | 17 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 4:32MTLCharles HudonAssists: Max Pacioretty, Joe Morrow · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 6:50VGKBrad HuntAssists: Luca Sbisa · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 9:51VGKTomas NosekAssists: Erik Haula, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 11:47MTLNikita ScherbakAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 3:07VGKRyan CarpenterGWGAssists: Colin Miller, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 3:46VGKReilly SmithAssists: Deryk Engelland, Jonathan Marchessault · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 4:02VGKNate SchmidtAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–6
- P3 8:44MTLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.04 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:06MTLVictor Mete: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:57MTLNikita Scherbak: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:30VGKNate Schmidt: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:30VGKMarc-Andre Fleury: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Byron – Gallagher8:14
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 12–6goals 0–2
- Plekanec – Byron – Scherbak5:26
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Galchenyuk – Hudon4:17
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Froese – Shaw – Carr9:32
xG 0.37–0.27 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Morrow2:05
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Petry – Alzner14:58
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 10–16goals 2–3
- Petry – Morrow2:36
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Eakin – Carpenter – Nosek5:01
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:25
xG 0.53–0.52 (51%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Carpenter – Bellemare – Nosek2:02
xG 0.01–0.03 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula12:49
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Schmidt16:31
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Miller – Hunt13:31
xG 0.28–0.37 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Miller – Schmidt2:26
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).