Sat, Feb 17, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 3, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 013 | 114 | 334 |
| NSH | 07 | 014 | 111 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12DETLuke WitkowskiAssists: Anthony Mantha, Justin Abdelkader · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 10:54DETGustav NyquistGWGAssists: Nick Jensen, Danny DeKeyser · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 14:35NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Juuse Saros · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 18:41DETDarren HelmENAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.54 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:25DETDanny DeKeyser: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:05DETTyler Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:05NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:11DETLuke Witkowski: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:05DETTrevor Daley: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:48NSHColton Sissons: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:18DETTyler Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 17:45NSHKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:30DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha12:27
xG 0.74–0.28 (73%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm7:53
xG 0.76–0.37 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Tatar – Athanasiou – Larkin10:31
xG 0.52–0.48 (52%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Glendening – Frk – Bertuzzi4:27
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser15:22
xG 1.08–0.50 (68%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Daley – Ericsson15:24
xG 0.87–0.57 (61%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Witkowski12:35
xG 0.77–0.46 (62%)attempts 10–22goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Turris – Smith – Fiala7:39
xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:40
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Bonino – Jarnkrok9:40
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons6:02
xG 0.26–1.07 (20%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Josi – Ellis18:04
xG 0.65–0.61 (51%)attempts 25–17goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm13:19
xG 0.51–0.67 (43%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Irwin – Bitetto9:31
xG 0.32–1.19 (21%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).