Sat, Feb 17, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Florida Panthers 6, Calgary Flames 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 311 | 210 | 630 |
| CGY | 111 | 111 | 111 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09FLAMike MathesonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:10CGYDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 0:58FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 3:09FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Vincent Trocheck · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 6:03FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 12:15CGYDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 3:41FLAMike MathesonAssists: Mark Pysyk, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.05 xG5–2
- P3 5:42FLAJared McCannAssists: Alexander Petrovic, MacKenzie Weegar · Tip-in, 0.12 xG6–2
- P3 11:55CGYDougie HamiltonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG6–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:13FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:13CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:10CGYMichael Stone: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:41CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:29FLAColton Sceviour: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:34FLAVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min
- P1 19:13CGYDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:59CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:08FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:40FLAMark Pysyk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:33FLAAlexander Petrovic: Interference2 min
- P3 7:44CGYTravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:44FLAColton Sceviour: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:32FLAKeith Yandle: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 15:06FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:52FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:52CGYGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Huberdeau – Malgin9:49
xG 0.59–0.35 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley2:41
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – McCann8:58
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov9:53
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad12:38
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Matheson14:46
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 20–15goals 2–0
- Petrovic – Weegar11:42
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett5:15
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan7:15
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Frolik – Jankowski – Hathaway2:13
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk8:18
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie12:05
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Giordano – Hamilton11:57
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 13–7goals 1–2
- Stone – Kulak11:24
xG 0.27–0.66 (29%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).