Sun, Feb 18, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 7, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 311 | 29 | 217 | 737 |
| NYR | 314 | 114 | 012 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30NYRKevin HayesAssists: Ryan Sproul, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 4:53PHIAndrew MacDonaldAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 10:54NYRRick NashAssists: Brady Skjei, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
- P1 12:11PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P1 14:53PHIBrandon ManningAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P1 17:21NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Peter Holland · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 2:01PHINolan PatrickAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Brandon Manning · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–3
- P2 5:47NYRPeter HollandAssists: Nick Holden, Cody McLeod · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–4
- P2 15:40PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 9:23PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.10 xG6–4
- P3 12:46PHIJori LehteraAssists: Dale Weise, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.13 xG7–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:15PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:15NYRPavel Buchnevich: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:23PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:23NYRTony DeAngelo: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:14PHIDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:14NYRCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:16NYRJohn Gilmour: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Lehtera – Weise8:43
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Weal – Laughton – Raffl8:44
xG 0.32–0.16 (68%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Voracek – Weal – Patrick4:53
xG 0.17–0.20 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Raffl4:35
xG 0.02–0.13 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas16:10
xG 1.30–0.65 (67%)attempts 26–15goals 3–2
- Gostisbehere – Provorov16:17
xG 0.57–0.67 (46%)attempts 19–12goals 3–0
- MacDonald – Manning2:19
xG 0.01–0.37 (4%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Zuccarello – Hayes16:33
xG 0.96–0.35 (73%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich12:26
xG 0.93–0.74 (56%)attempts 15–17goals 1–3
- McLeod – Holland – Miller10:25
xG 0.67–0.50 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Desharnais – Fast – Vesey10:33
xG 0.07–0.57 (11%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSproul – Gilmour16:08
xG 0.74–0.50 (60%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pionk20:59
xG 0.79–0.61 (56%)attempts 14–21goals 1–1
- Holden – DeAngelo15:00
xG 1.25–1.08 (54%)attempts 19–19goals 1–5
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).