Sun, Feb 18, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 017 | 18 | 315 | 440 |
| COL | 19 | 111 | 06 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04COLTyson JostUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 11:57EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Patrick Maroon, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 13:07COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Anton Lindholm, Colin Wilson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 8:59EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 13:18EDMRyan StromeGWGAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:34EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:03EDMDrake Caggiula: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:09COLColin Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:13EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:05EDMMatt Benning: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid5:27
xG 0.45–0.03 (93%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Strome – Khaira – Slepyshev6:00
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Lucic – Strome2:05
xG 0.24–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Puljujarvi5:45
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Klefbom13:14
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Benning2:38
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Russell – Davidson2:01
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:21
xG 0.91–0.56 (62%)attempts 19–16goals 0–1
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Compher9:59
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Bourque – Toninato – Jost5:25
xG 0.04–0.08 (33%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto11:22
xG 0.33–0.82 (29%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zadorov8:58
xG 0.82–0.39 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Barrie – Lindholm5:30
xG 0.28–0.20 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nemeth2:19
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).