Sun, Feb 18, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 16 | 03 | 13 | 321 |
| CAR | 013 | 115 | 113 | 01 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:56NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Keith Kinkaid · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 6:05CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Victor Rask, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 15:33NJDPavel ZachaAssists: John Moore · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 18:42CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 4:37NJDTaylor HallGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Sami Vatanen · Backhand, 0.24 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:27CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:22CARJaccob Slavin: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:44CARJaccob Slavin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:12NJDJesper Bratt: Holding2 min
- P2 13:23NJDJohn Moore: Holding2 min
- P2 16:34NJDNick Lappin: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:23CARJeff Skinner: Interference2 min
- P3 11:23NJDPavel Zacha: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Noesen8:13
xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Pietila – Lappin5:27
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Stafford – Zacha – Bratt6:42
xG 0.02–0.30 (6%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier8:24
xG 0.04–1.39 (3%)attempts 3–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lovejoy – Mueller11:56
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson16:04
xG 0.31–1.19 (21%)attempts 10–23goals 0–0
- Greene – Vatanen14:08
xG 0.56–1.59 (26%)attempts 10–24goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – McGinn – Lindholm11:21
xG 1.66–0.54 (75%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Rask – Teravainen – Aho10:45
xG 0.71–0.01 (99%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe – Wallmark4:02
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Williams – Skinner – Ryan12:32
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce11:55
xG 2.10–0.40 (84%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Slavin – van Riemsdyk3:23
xG 0.40–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin9:37
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).