Mon, Feb 19, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Minnesota Wild 5, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 312 | 19 | 532 |
| NYI | 112 | 26 | 017 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:02MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Charlie Coyle, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 19:15NYIRoss JohnstonAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Casey Cizikas · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 1:57NYIAnders LeeAssists: Thomas Hickey, Ryan Pulock · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 9:54MINMatt CullenAssists: Ryan Suter, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 12:17MINJason ZuckerAssists: Ryan Suter, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 14:06MINTyler EnnisGWGAssists: Matt Cullen, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 16:31NYITanner FritzAssists: Anders Lee, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 16:38MINJason ZuckerAssists: Eric Staal · Snap, 0.18 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:26MINMarcus Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:54NYIRyan Pulock: Interference2 min
- P3 0:25MINMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:11MINZach Parise: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:37MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Coyle – Eriksson Ek9:08
xG 1.02–0.59 (63%)attempts 8–21goals 1–1
- Staal – Parise – Niederreiter5:16
xG 0.61–0.27 (69%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
- Koivu – Parise – Granlund8:18
xG 0.33–0.04 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund6:02
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Seeler16:48
xG 1.36–0.53 (72%)attempts 14–23goals 2–2
- Suter – Dumba19:22
xG 1.01–0.41 (71%)attempts 22–19goals 2–0
- Prosser – Olofsson9:35
xG 0.69–0.31 (69%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Ladd – Nelson – Fritz11:25
xG 0.18–0.41 (30%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier10:22
xG 0.40–0.75 (34%)attempts 12–6goals 0–2
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston8:17
xG 0.23–0.70 (25%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee12:01
xG 0.38–1.18 (24%)attempts 15–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Aho14:55
xG 0.52–0.49 (51%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Hickey – Pulock14:08
xG 0.49–0.68 (42%)attempts 20–11goals 1–2
- Boychuk – Leddy14:34
xG 0.37–1.75 (17%)attempts 15–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).