Mon, Feb 19, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 2, Vegas Golden Knights 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 14 | 08 | 18 | 220 |
| VGK | 08 | 05 | 020 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:32ANAJakob SilfverbergGWGAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Rickard Rakell · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 7:01ANAJosh MansonAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Rickard Rakell · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:05ANAAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:21VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:21ANARyan Kesler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:59ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell14:12
xG 0.37–0.18 (68%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Vermette – Grant – Wagner6:57
xG 0.06–0.05 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase10:34
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg12:27
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Lindholm14:17
xG 1.27–0.47 (73%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
- Fowler – Montour18:55
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm3:12
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Carpenter – Nosek10:41
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Lindberg – Hyka – Matteau6:28
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Perron – Haula – Tuch13:53
xG 0.14–0.36 (29%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:44
xG 0.45–1.14 (28%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt14:55
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Hunt12:23
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Engelland – Sbisa16:48
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).