Tue, Feb 20, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 013 | 012 | 015 | 040 |
| TOR | 111 | 015 | 05 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:31TORJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:13TORMitch Marner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:50FLAMike Matheson: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:21FLANick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:18TORPatrick Marleau: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Nylander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov12:46
xG 1.35–0.32 (81%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- McGinn – Brickley – McCann6:58
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley6:30
xG 0.06–0.22 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Malgin12:11
xG 0.52–0.93 (36%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Ekblad18:05
xG 0.92–0.89 (51%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson15:02
xG 0.85–0.93 (48%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Petrovic – McCoshen12:49
xG 0.48–0.60 (45%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Komarov – Kapanen7:22
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner12:48
xG 0.75–0.65 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown8:46
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews14:15
xG 0.58–1.29 (31%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev15:43
xG 1.29–1.05 (55%)attempts 25–17goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Rielly14:13
xG 0.72–0.89 (45%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Polak – Dermott12:27
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).