Tue, Feb 20, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 215 | 07 | 17 | 329 |
| DET | 08 | 114 | 114 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:18NSHScott HartnellAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 9:35NSHKyle TurrisAssists: Roman Josi, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 10:12DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 4:50NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 7:54DETTomas TatarAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:30DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:40NSHAlexei Emelin: Concealing puck2 min
- P3 5:48NSHAustin Watson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:32NSHP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00NSHP.K. Subban: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala8:19
xG 1.06–0.50 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:08
xG 0.86–0.30 (74%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons10:34
xG 0.63–0.24 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Bonino – Jarnkrok8:28
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Weber10:33
xG 0.37–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm17:47
xG 1.37–1.16 (54%)attempts 15–22goals 0–1
- Josi – Ellis16:15
xG 1.04–0.86 (55%)attempts 24–18goals 2–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha11:27
xG 0.82–0.59 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Tatar – Athanasiou – Larkin10:57
xG 0.55–0.64 (46%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm9:17
xG 0.13–0.61 (18%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Glendening – Frk – Bertuzzi3:04
xG 0.00–0.58 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Daley – Ericsson15:45
xG 0.62–0.63 (50%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen4:00
xG 0.02–0.04 (27%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser13:51
xG 0.47–0.61 (44%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).