Wed, Feb 21, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 0, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 010 | 07 | 024 | 041 |
| ANA | 14 | 08 | 15 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:15ANAHampus LindholmPPGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 4:28ANARyan GetzlafSHAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Derek Grant · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:07DALAntoine Roussel: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:07DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:19DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:53ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:11ANARyan Getzlaf: Delaying game2 min
- P3 2:16ANAJosh Manson: Delaying game2 min
- P3 4:50ANAMarcus Pettersson: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00ANAAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Grant
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Shore8:46
xG 0.47–0.07 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa6:17
xG 0.04–0.04 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hanzal – Ritchie3:30
xG 0.04–0.10 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Seguin – Janmark – Elie9:54
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn12:24
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Methot – Johns13:40
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell14:47
xG 0.16–0.49 (25%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Ritchie – Kase11:03
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell12:20
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Grant – Wagner – Brown5:51
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:53
xG 0.15–0.42 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Pettersson11:56
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm12:38
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Fowler – Montour16:42
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).