Wed, Feb 21, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Calgary Flames 3, Vegas Golden Knights 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 214 | 011 | 331 |
| VGK | 211 | 28 | 37 | 726 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28VGKRyan CarpenterUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 16:45CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Travis Hamonic, Matt Stajan · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 19:29VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Nate Schmidt · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 0:20CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 1:18VGKReilly SmithAssists: Colin Miller, Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.26 xG2–3
- P2 11:07CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 13:58VGKAlex TuchGWGAssists: David Perron, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 3:17VGKLuca SbisaAssists: Alex Tuch · Slap, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 11:15VGKTomas NosekAssists: Luca Sbisa, David Perron · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–6
- P3 14:18VGKCody EakinAssists: Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 19:11CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:17VGKMarc-Andre Fleury: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:17CGYMark Jankowski: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:50CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:36VGKErik Haula: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:15VGKDeryk Engelland: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:15CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:50CGYTravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:50VGKAlex Tuch: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Monahan – Hathaway4:50
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Stajan – Brouwer – Lazar10:05
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:14
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 21–9goals 1–1
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett6:44
xG 0.31–0.14 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie17:30
xG 0.84–0.42 (67%)attempts 23–8goals 1–2
- Stone – Kulak12:58
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Brodie – Hamilton2:19
xG 0.01–0.01 (44%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Haula – Nosek2:05
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Eakin – Hyka – Carpenter12:25
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault14:42
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Perron – Haula – Tuch12:51
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Miller19:04
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- McNabb – Schmidt12:44
xG 0.12–0.43 (22%)attempts 3–18goals 1–0
- Engelland – Sbisa16:02
xG 0.40–0.81 (33%)attempts 11–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).