Thu, Feb 22, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 02 | 114 | 04 | 120 |
| PHI | 07 | 06 | 27 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:51CBJArtemi PanarinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 2:34PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 9:49PHINolan PatrickPPGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:30CBJCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:55CBJJack Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:41PHIJordan Weal: Interference2 min
- P2 8:33PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:41CBJArtemi Panarin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:12CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Elbowing2 min
- P3 9:43CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Panarin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois12:47
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Gerbe – Dalpe – Sedlak3:30
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Anderson7:22
xG 0.02–0.04 (37%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Jenner – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg12:24
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Harrington9:17
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray15:27
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski17:28
xG 0.49–0.68 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Raffl11:07
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick5:09
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Leier – Lindblom3:20
xG 0.02–0.02 (60%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Lehtera – Weise7:09
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas13:45
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov2:06
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hagg14:08
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).