Thu, Feb 22, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 06 | 08 | 118 | 132 |
| MTL | 113 | 119 | 19 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:59MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Paul Byron, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 3:50MTLJeff PetryGWGAssists: Charles Hudon, Nicolas Deslauriers · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 17:00NYRKevin HayesPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, David Desharnais · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 18:43MTLPhillip DanaultENAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:30MTLLogan Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:47NYRJohn Gilmour: Holding2 min
- P1 15:21MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:22NYRBrady Skjei: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:46NYRNeal Pionk: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:13NYRMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:23NYRKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:52MTLJordie Benn: Interference2 min
- P3 15:23MTLCharles Hudon: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Carey – Fast10:09
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Vesey – Buchnevich7:52
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Hayes – Miller8:46
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- McLeod – Holland – Lettieri6:09
xG 0.04–0.60 (6%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilmour – DeAngelo6:19
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Staal – O'Gara2:19
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- O'Gara – Pionk2:08
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Byron – Gallagher6:03
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – Shaw5:12
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Danault – Galchenyuk – Hudon7:15
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Lehkonen – Drouin9:30
xG 0.51–0.50 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Juulsen12:17
xG 0.83–0.29 (74%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Benn – Morrow13:20
xG 1.03–0.51 (67%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Petry – Mete10:28
xG 0.67–0.35 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).