Thu, Feb 22, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 1, Nashville Predators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 111 | 013 | 134 |
| NSH | 215 | 112 | 419 | 746 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55NSHNick BoninoAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:17NSHScott HartnellGWGAssists: Nick Bonino, Calle Jarnkrok · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 8:37SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Kevin Labanc, Justin Braun · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 15:57NSHKevin FialaAssists: P.K. Subban, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 3:49NSHViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Craig Smith · Snap, 0.60 xG1–4
- P3 6:30NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Roman Josi · Snap, 0.16 xG1–5
- P3 11:00NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson · Snap, 0.18 xG1–6
- P3 17:51NSHCalle JarnkrokUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:38NSHFilip Forsberg: Holding2 min
- P1 16:42SJSBrenden Dillon: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:41NSHMiikka Salomaki: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:06NSHViktor Arvidsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:13SJSTimo Meier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:53NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min
- P3 14:46NSHViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:21SJSBrent Burns: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Donskoi – Meier9:55
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Fehr – Goodrow – Karlsson10:06
xG 0.21–0.44 (32%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Hansen – Boedker – Tierney9:01
xG 0.48–0.71 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 0–3
- Couture – Hertl – Labanc11:57
xG 0.29–0.55 (34%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Braun13:12
xG 0.68–0.72 (49%)attempts 17–13goals 1–2
- Burns – Ryan13:41
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo12:49
xG 0.44–0.60 (43%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala10:10
xG 0.88–0.29 (75%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons9:21
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Bonino – Jarnkrok9:18
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 10–13goals 3–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:59
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm13:58
xG 0.93–0.30 (76%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Emelin – Weber13:29
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis14:10
xG 0.32–0.73 (30%)attempts 10–22goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).