Sat, Feb 24, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 212 | 012 | 315 | 539 |
| OTT | 112 | 09 | 27 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:14PHIRobert HaggUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 12:14OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 4:15PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Brandon Manning · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 7:05PHINolan PatrickGWGAssists: Brandon Manning, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 8:56PHIBrandon ManningAssists: Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–1
- P3 16:47OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Zack Smith, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 19:03OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman · Backhand, 0.20 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:48PHIRobert Hagg: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:22PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:41OTTBen Harpur: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:02PHIRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:26OTTMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:53PHIJori Lehtera: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:53OTTMax McCormick: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Lindblom – Patrick10:44
xG 0.98–0.32 (75%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny14:16
xG 0.46–0.47 (50%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Weal – Laughton – Raffl8:43
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Filppula – Lehtera – Weise8:20
xG 0.09–0.51 (14%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hagg15:14
xG 0.45–0.20 (70%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov14:38
xG 0.67–0.50 (57%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Manning – Gudas14:29
xG 0.68–0.98 (41%)attempts 12–22goals 3–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Paajarvi – Pageau9:30
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Gaborik – McCormick – Shore7:46
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Ryan – Smith – Hoffman8:12
xG 0.15–0.36 (29%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Duchene – Stone – Dzingel9:47
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Chabot17:11
xG 0.71–0.62 (54%)attempts 13–16goals 1–2
- Borowiecki – Harpur2:07
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – Claesson7:06
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).