Sat, Feb 24, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 215 | 12 | 06 | 323 |
| TOR | 212 | 116 | 18 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:11BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:15TORMitch MarnerAssists: William Nylander, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 10:30TORNazem KadriPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P1 15:02BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 1:55BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Ryan Spooner, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 19:04TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 18:37TORRon HainseyGWGAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:23BOSRyan Spooner: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 11:12TORLeo Komarov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:29TORTravis Dermott: Interference2 min
- P2 16:30BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:00BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Backes – Nash – Heinen8:38
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:08
xG 0.80–0.96 (45%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- Krejci – Spooner – DeBrusk7:54
xG 0.28–0.73 (28%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari11:55
xG 0.15–0.61 (20%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy18:06
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 17–24goals 1–1
- Miller – Krug3:56
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller3:27
xG 0.15–0.11 (59%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Leivo – Kapanen7:22
xG 0.62–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown10:31
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Marner11:50
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri11:03
xG 0.81–0.74 (53%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly12:07
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 20–10goals 1–3
- Gardiner – Zaitsev13:35
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Polak – Dermott14:12
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).