Sat, Feb 24, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 5, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 013 | 59 | 05 | 527 |
| DAL | 111 | 19 | 116 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10DALTyler PitlickAssists: Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 0:49WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:33WPGToby EnstromAssists: Jack Roslovic, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 8:01WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 11:59WPGPatrik LaineGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Michael Hutchinson · Snap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 18:47WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.07 xG5–1
- P2 19:27DALTyler SeguinAssists: Alexander Radulov, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 19:13DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:05WPGBen Chiarot: Interference2 min
- P1 19:23WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 0:09DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:46DALGreg Pateryn: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 7:03DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:46WPGPatrik Laine: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:53WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:10
xG 0.44–0.34 (57%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
- Little – Perreault – Roslovic11:51
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Copp – Ehlers – Laine9:41
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Armia – Petan6:25
xG 0.08–0.36 (18%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Myers – Morrissey14:55
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Chiarot13:03
xG 0.34–0.80 (30%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien17:53
xG 0.44–0.91 (32%)attempts 13–23goals 2–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Shore – Janmark2:41
xG 0.37–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin6:17
xG 0.52–0.20 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
- Spezza – Ritchie – Smith5:54
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Seguin – Janmark – Elie6:51
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Johns15:43
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 24–12goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Pateryn14:44
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell16:51
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 17–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).