Sat, Feb 24, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 4, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 29 | 18 | 425 |
| LAK | 010 | 110 | 213 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51EDMAnton SlepyshevAssists: Ryan Strome, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 6:16EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 14:26LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Nate Thompson · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 17:04EDMJujhar KhairaAssists: Drake Caggiula, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 7:51LAKTobias RiederAssists: Derek Forbort, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 19:01EDMRyan StromeENGWGAssists: Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
- P3 19:42LAKDustin BrownAssists: Drew Doughty, Adrian Kempe · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:59EDMAndrej Sekera: Interference2 min
- P1 6:46LAKChristian Folin: Interference2 min
- P1 8:03EDMMatt Benning: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:57EDMDarnell Nurse: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:46LAKAdrian Kempe: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPakarinen – Khaira – Caggiula5:20
xG 0.15–0.05 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Lucic – Draisaitl – McDavid15:59
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Strome – Slepyshev12:06
xG 0.25–0.65 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Puljujarvi10:17
xG 0.02–0.46 (3%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom2:24
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Benning – Nurse2:11
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Larsson – Nurse15:54
xG 0.55–0.60 (48%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Toffoli – Rieder4:01
xG 0.36–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Carter – Kempe – Iafallo4:14
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson6:39
xG 0.34–0.08 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kempe – Amadio – Iafallo4:44
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty6:40
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Martinez14:38
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort13:48
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).