Sun, Feb 25, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 0, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 08 | 010 | 027 |
| NSH | 216 | 210 | 013 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45NSHColton SissonsPPGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:21NSHKevin FialaAssists: Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 1:20NSHScott HartnellAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Ellis · Tip-in, 0.26 xG0–3
- P2 13:24NSHAustin WatsonSHAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:58STLCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:41NSHMiikka Salomaki: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:21NSHViktor Arvidsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:34NSHP.K. Subban: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 5:30NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:32STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:36NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Brodziak – Jaskin – Soshnikov2:37
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Barbashev8:51
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Sobotka – Jaskin7:37
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz2:24
xG 0.13–0.32 (28%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmaltz – Dunn5:49
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Schmaltz6:38
xG 0.08–0.09 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Parayko – Dunn7:13
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala11:40
xG 1.13–0.34 (77%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Bonino – Jarnkrok11:06
xG 0.80–0.22 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:15
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons6:09
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis13:14
xG 1.09–0.10 (91%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Emelin – Weber12:00
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm17:52
xG 0.85–0.70 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).