Mon, Feb 26, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 09 | 114 | 132 |
| COL | 111 | 08 | 29 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:36COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Jost · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 7:52COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 18:44VANDaniel SedinAssists: Alexander Edler, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:15COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:57VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:11COLAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:31VANJake Virtanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:19VANTroy Stecher: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:01VANJake Virtanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:58COLNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:25VANJake Virtanen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kerfoot won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Sedin – Sedin – Gagner3:45
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Baertschi – Horvat2:18
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sutter – Archibald – Virtanen9:36
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Boeser3:49
xG 0.04–0.23 (15%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Gudbranson15:24
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Hutton11:27
xG 0.29–0.76 (28%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Stecher11:52
xG 0.29–0.79 (27%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Toninato – Compher5:47
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:01
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto7:28
xG 0.49–0.11 (82%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost8:57
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Girard13:01
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Warsofsky – Siemens8:49
xG 0.43–0.09 (83%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Barrie – Zadorov15:00
xG 0.51–0.64 (45%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).