Tue, Feb 27, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 113 | 116 | 19 | 338 |
| PIT | 117 | 17 | 014 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:17PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 12:19NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Damon Severson, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 4:25NJDTaylor HallPPAssists: Damon Severson, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.32 xG2–1
- P2 17:02PITMatt HunwickAssists: Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 5:01NJDStefan NoesenGWGAssists: Andy Greene, Travis Zajac · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:53NJDMiles Wood: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:53PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:38NJDBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:00PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:04NJDBrian Boyle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestWood – Zacha – Bratt7:15
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Coleman – Wood – Zacha2:37
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Coleman5:41
xG 0.32–0.56 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Zajac – Grabner – Noesen12:52
xG 0.67–1.11 (37%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher11:11
xG 0.68–0.09 (88%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Greene – Vatanen18:42
xG 0.98–1.49 (40%)attempts 18–23goals 1–2
- Moore – Severson16:10
xG 0.52–1.04 (33%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel13:34
xG 1.37–0.51 (73%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Sheary9:33
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Kuhnhackl – Rowney3:24
xG 0.01–0.10 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin12:23
xG 0.72–1.01 (41%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin19:01
xG 1.13–0.88 (56%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Schultz – Maatta13:55
xG 0.67–0.59 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Oleksiak11:24
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).