Tue, Feb 27, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 013 | 28 | 015 | 03 | 239 |
| FLA | 19 | 17 | 012 | 13 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:02FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 1:42FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 2:53TORDominic MooreAssists: Leo Komarov, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 12:34TORZach HymanAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 3:47FLAJared McCannGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:31FLAJared McCann: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:37TORTyler Bozak: Interference2 min
- P1 9:44TORTyler Bozak: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:54TORJames van Riemsdyk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:22FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:57TORWilliam Nylander: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Komarov – Kapanen4:47
xG 0.81–0.03 (96%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner15:51
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Hyman – Nylander8:55
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown12:02
xG 0.24–0.16 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Dermott12:35
xG 0.71–0.11 (86%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev15:51
xG 0.87–0.51 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Rielly15:38
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Trocheck – Huberdeau11:12
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley5:43
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- McGinn – McCann – Mamin9:37
xG 0.17–0.45 (28%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov14:09
xG 0.28–0.74 (28%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Matheson16:11
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Petrovic – Weegar11:52
xG 0.28–0.62 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad17:25
xG 0.38–1.08 (26%)attempts 6–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).