Tue, Feb 27, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 3, Minnesota Wild 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 212 | 05 | 325 |
| MIN | 38 | 315 | 210 | 833 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:57MINJason ZuckerPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Eric Staal · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 7:13MINMikael GranlundAssists: Eric Staal, Jason Zucker · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 9:59STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Brayden Schenn, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 11:17MINMikael GranlundAssists: Nick Seeler, Nate Prosser · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 0:15STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P2 8:19MINEric StaalPPGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–4
- P2 17:07MINMikko KoivuAssists: Charlie Coyle, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
- P2 18:32STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
- P2 19:44MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–6
- P3 7:46MINEric StaalAssists: Jason Zucker, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–7
- P3 10:54MINEric StaalAssists: Jason Zucker, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–8
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:51STLVladimir Sobotka: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:39MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:25STLDmitrij Jaskin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:30MINMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:19MINNick Seeler: Interference2 min
- P2 7:39STLAlexander Steen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:46STLJay Bouwmeester: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:53MINNino Niederreiter: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:28MINMikko Koivu: Interference2 min
- P3 11:10STLAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:21MINMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Tarasenko – Barbashev9:31
xG 0.38–0.14 (72%)attempts 16–2goals 0–1
- Upshall – Brodziak – Jaskin6:43
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Soshnikov7:10
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Schenn – Schwartz – Jaskin3:22
xG 0.08–0.59 (12%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko4:53
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo2:52
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Schmaltz6:23
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Granlund8:52
xG 1.60–0.22 (88%)attempts 12–13goals 4–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle8:02
xG 1.24–0.35 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Winnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek9:52
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Niederreiter11:03
xG 0.14–0.53 (21%)attempts 2–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Seeler13:25
xG 1.33–0.41 (77%)attempts 11–11goals 3–0
- Suter – Spurgeon7:19
xG 0.73–0.13 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin5:08
xG 0.63–0.17 (79%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).