Tue, Feb 27, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 6, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 013 | 310 | 39 | 632 |
| WPG | 011 | 413 | 115 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:45WPGMatt HendricksAssists: Joel Armia, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 8:55NSHCraig SmithAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 12:41WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Jack Roslovic, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 14:23WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Paul Stastny, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 15:07NSHKyle TurrisAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 17:06NSHMattias EkholmPPAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 17:39WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Patrik Laine, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 10:00WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 10:55NSHCraig SmithAssists: Yannick Weber · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
- P3 13:57NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–5
- P3 19:00NSHRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Roman Josi · Deflected, 0.11 xG6–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:05NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:13WPGMark Scheifele: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:13NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:43NSHScott Hartnell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:07WPGJack Roslovic: Delaying game bench2 min · PPG
- P2 18:50WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wheeler won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala11:08
xG 0.73–0.18 (80%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Watson – Sissons – Hartman8:03
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Hartnell – Bonino – Jarnkrok8:08
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:39
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm19:15
xG 0.67–0.50 (58%)attempts 28–22goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis19:41
xG 1.03–0.91 (53%)attempts 26–17goals 3–1
- Emelin – Weber8:37
xG 0.43–0.55 (44%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Ehlers – Laine10:20
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Armia – Copp6:19
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:53
xG 0.65–0.63 (51%)attempts 20–20goals 0–2
- Little – Perreault – Roslovic12:01
xG 0.20–0.85 (19%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey18:46
xG 1.06–0.36 (75%)attempts 26–21goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Morrow11:46
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 8–17goals 2–1
- Myers – Kulikov16:29
xG 0.52–1.32 (28%)attempts 16–27goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).