Tue, Feb 27, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 0, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 017 | 013 | 038 |
| DAL | 110 | 18 | 08 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:21DALDevin ShoreGWGAssists: Remi Elie, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 10:04DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Brett Ritchie · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 11:12DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P1 11:17DALMarc Methot: Delaying game2 min
- P1 14:38CGYCurtis Lazar: Interference2 min
- P1 19:39CGYGarnet Hathaway: Holding2 min
- P2 1:59DALTyler Pitlick: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:27CGYSam Bennett: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:04CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 13:18DALTyler Pitlick: Interference2 min
- P2 17:19CGYMichael Stone: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:53CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:57CGYBrett Kulak: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:57DALTyler Pitlick: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:57DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:18DALTyler Pitlick: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Hathaway – Bennett3:10
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett4:18
xG 0.24–0.12 (65%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Stewart – Backlund – Tkachuk3:28
xG 0.10–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk5:51
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton12:16
xG 1.02–0.29 (78%)attempts 25–7goals 0–0
- Stone – Kulak6:48
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie12:21
xG 0.11–0.14 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Pitlick – Faksa8:03
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Faksa – Shore3:22
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Seguin – Janmark – Elie2:38
xG 0.02–0.03 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Seguin – Shore – Elie3:56
xG 0.06–0.10 (35%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn13:34
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Methot – Johns10:06
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell12:12
xG 0.22–0.59 (27%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).