Tue, Feb 27, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 4, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 113 | 27 | 110 | 430 |
| VGK | 113 | 017 | 012 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 8:36LAKKyle CliffordUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 6:56LAKTyler ToffoliGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 19:30LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 18:02LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:29VGKNate Schmidt: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 3:19LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:13VGKDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:40LAKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:00VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P2 1:45LAKNate Thompson: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:45LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:20VGKRyan Reaves: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:37VGKRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:37VGKTomas Hyka: Abuse of officials2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Rieder7:38
xG 0.86–0.26 (77%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Clifford – Amadio6:33
xG 0.63–0.41 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo3:14
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Thompson – Rieder – Kempe2:45
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Folin8:05
xG 1.10–0.30 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Martinez10:07
xG 0.43–0.59 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez3:27
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Eakin – Hyka5:58
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Tatar – Haula2:03
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carpenter – Nosek5:03
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Eakin – Carpenter – Tuch2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller12:40
xG 0.91–0.34 (73%)attempts 21–4goals 0–1
- Engelland – Schmidt2:07
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Schmidt2:11
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).