Tue, Feb 27, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 112 | 04 | 110 | 226 |
| SJS | 08 | 417 | 112 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 1:20SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Evander Kane, Joakim Ryan · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:02SJSJustin BraunAssists: Joe Pavelski, Evander Kane · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 16:15SJSTimo MeierGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joonas Donskoi · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 17:38SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 6:06EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Pontus Aberg, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 19:05SJSChris TierneyENAssists: Eric Fehr, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:18SJSJustin Braun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 1:02EDMRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:12EDMAnton Slepyshev: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:43SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:43EDMLeon Draisaitl: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:12SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:12EDMMatt Benning: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Draisaitl – McDavid2:52
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lucic – Slepyshev – McDavid11:38
xG 0.57–0.54 (52%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
- Strome – Aberg – Puljujarvi10:09
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Pakarinen – Khaira – Caggiula7:34
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse13:13
xG 0.66–0.43 (61%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Klefbom – Benning12:07
xG 0.48–0.47 (50%)attempts 7–13goals 1–2
- Sekera – Larsson2:32
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Kane – Donskoi10:45
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Fehr – Goodrow – Karlsson10:28
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Tierney – Labanc – Meier9:15
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Couture – Boedker – Hertl11:28
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan13:30
xG 0.87–0.38 (69%)attempts 16–13goals 2–1
- Dillon – DeMelo12:22
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon2:03
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).