Wed, Feb 28, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 09 | 08 | 128 |
| MTL | 111 | 210 | 05 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Jordan Eberle, Thomas Hickey · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:02MTLPaul ByronAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:29MTLJonathan DrouinPPGWGAssists: Jeff Petry, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 13:37MTLNikita ScherbakAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Jacob de la Rose · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:23NYIBrandon Davidson: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:41MTLPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:57NYICal Clutterbuck: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:10MTLJacob de la Rose: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drouin won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee8:43
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Ladd – Nelson – Fritz6:27
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier10:23
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Wagner7:05
xG 0.06–0.23 (19%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Pelech12:31
xG 0.73–0.24 (75%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Hickey – Pulock12:00
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2
- Leddy – Pulock2:06
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFroese – Shaw – Scherbak8:25
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Danault – Galchenyuk – Hudon11:01
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Lehkonen – Drouin10:05
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Byron – Gallagher – de la Rose8:30
xG 0.09–0.23 (27%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Mete12:04
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 9–17goals 2–0
- Benn – Reilly17:16
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Alzner – Juulsen13:02
xG 0.36–0.95 (27%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).