Wed, Feb 28, 2018·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 1, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 015 | 08 | 113 | 136 |
| STL | 08 | 112 | 15 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:12STLScottie UpshallAssists: Colton Parayko, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P3 14:37STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 18:15DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Slap, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:58STLScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:02DETMartin Frk: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:52STLNikita Soshnikov: Holding2 min
- P3 18:41STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:41DETAndreas Athanasiou: Embellishment2 min
- P3 19:57STLCarter Hutton: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:57DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Abdelkader – Helm9:29
xG 1.05–0.07 (94%)attempts 14–3goals 0–1
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Larkin7:53
xG 0.39–0.26 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Booth – Glendening – Frk3:08
xG 0.13–0.11 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha12:12
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ouellet12:03
xG 0.96–0.31 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson16:58
xG 1.02–0.61 (63%)attempts 28–13goals 0–1
- Jensen – DeKeyser15:59
xG 0.38–0.49 (44%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Jaskin10:37
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Sobotka4:00
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak7:38
xG 0.01–0.35 (1%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
- Steen – Tarasenko – Barbashev9:19
xG 0.13–0.73 (15%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Parayko – Dunn3:49
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Dunn7:38
xG 0.03–0.16 (15%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:25
xG 0.16–0.68 (19%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).