Wed, Feb 28, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
New York Rangers 6, Vancouver Canucks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 37 | 110 | 19 | 11 | 627 |
| VAN | 217 | 118 | 218 | 02 | 555 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22NYRKevin HayesAssists: Ryan Spooner, Brady Skjei · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 2:05NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Neal Pionk, Vladislav Namestnikov · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 12:29NYRKevin HayesAssists: Neal Pionk, Ryan Spooner · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–0
- P1 14:12VANBrock BoeserAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P1 19:12VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–2
- P2 11:01VANDaniel SedinUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 14:58NYRVladislav NamestnikovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 12:17VANNikolay GoldobinAssists: Brendan Leipsic, Derrick Pouliot · Snap, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 14:47NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider, Jesper Fast · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–4
- P3 19:14VANBrock BoeserAssists: Brendan Leipsic, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–5
- OT 1:22NYRJohn GilmourGWGAssists: Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:19NYRJesper Fast: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:23VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:28VANBrendan Leipsic: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:20NYRMika Zibanejad: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:13NYRPaul Carey: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich11:58
xG 0.45–0.28 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Spooner – Hayes – Fast10:34
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Carey – Fast2:36
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- McLeod – Desharnais – Carey4:29
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Gilmour17:55
xG 0.80–0.64 (55%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Staal – Pionk16:58
xG 1.05–0.92 (53%)attempts 18–18goals 3–0
- O'Gara – DeAngelo11:39
xG 0.13–0.82 (14%)attempts 3–22goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLeipsic – Horvat – Boeser13:41
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Gagner – Baertschi – Virtanen9:55
xG 0.71–0.52 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Goldobin8:09
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 10–4goals 1–3
- Sutter – Archibald – Motte9:19
xG 0.08–0.35 (19%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPouliot – Hutton14:56
xG 1.31–0.64 (67%)attempts 23–11goals 1–2
- Edler – Gudbranson15:59
xG 0.69–0.55 (56%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Stecher16:28
xG 0.42–0.82 (34%)attempts 17–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).