Thu, Mar 1, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Boston Bruins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 37 | 08 | 111 | 426 |
| BOS | 514 | 315 | 09 | 838 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35PITOlli MaattaAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 1:45BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Rick Nash, Zdeno Chara · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 2:53BOSRiley NashAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 5:27BOSRick NashPPAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P1 9:27PITPhil KesselAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P1 12:49BOSDavid BackesAssists: Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P1 16:07BOSTorey KrugGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Riley Nash · Slap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P1 19:57PITRiley SheahanUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG3–5
- P2 2:16BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Nick Holden, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–6
- P2 14:33BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Brian Gionta, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–7
- P2 17:42BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Zdeno Chara, Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–8
- P3 5:15PITOlli MaattaAssists: Phil Kessel, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.02 xG4–8
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:33PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:07PITBrian Dumoulin: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:07BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:28PITBrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:00BOSTim Schaller: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:38PITOlli Maatta: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:38BOSBrad Marchand: Embellishment2 min
- P2 8:00BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:50BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:50PITJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 13:27PITMatt Hunwick: Holding2 min
- P2 19:16BOSTorey Krug: Interference2 min
- P3 7:25PITOlli Maatta: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:00BOSZdeno Chara: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Brassard – Sheahan – Rust2:18
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Kessel2:20
xG 0.09–0.08 (53%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Kuhnhackl – Rowney2:37
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 1–2goals 0–2
- Kuhnhackl – Rowney – Sheary2:11
xG 0.02–0.08 (17%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Maatta2:27
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Schultz3:00
xG 0.01–0.08 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Schultz – Maatta10:45
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 4–14goals 2–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestNash – Krejci – DeBrusk7:28
xG 0.40–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari8:07
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Marchand – Nash – Pastrnak7:30
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 2–2
- Gionta – Backes – Wingels8:18
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug11:03
xG 0.78–0.18 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Holden – Carlo8:26
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Chara – McAvoy9:30
xG 0.57–0.34 (62%)attempts 16–6goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).