Thu, Mar 1, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 2, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 113 | 110 | 231 |
| FLA | 17 | 010 | 212 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:51FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Alexander Petrovic · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 0:50NJDTaylor HallPPAssists: Patrick Maroon, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 8:38FLAMaxim MaminAssists: Jared McCann, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 16:26FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Nick Bjugstad · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 17:53NJDJesper BrattAssists: Patrick Maroon · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:54NJDPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:54FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:05FLAMike Matheson: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:56FLANick Bjugstad: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:24NJDJohn Moore: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:47NJDBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Maroon – Coleman6:09
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Grabner – Noesen12:46
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier11:17
xG 0.21–0.69 (23%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
- Wood – Zacha – Bratt7:33
xG 0.03–0.71 (5%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher9:15
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Severson – Butcher3:44
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Moore3:00
xG 0.05–0.24 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – McCann – Mamin7:31
xG 0.67–0.17 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov12:57
xG 0.93–0.45 (68%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Barkov2:47
xG 0.23–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Trocheck – Huberdeau9:46
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson16:29
xG 0.90–0.45 (67%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad16:04
xG 0.94–0.53 (64%)attempts 20–16goals 2–0
- Petrovic – Weegar14:01
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).