Thu, Mar 1, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 4, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 017 | 210 | 215 | 442 |
| EDM | 212 | 09 | 015 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:01EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Anton Slepyshev, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 19:07EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 16:28NSHScott HartnellAssists: Nick Bonino, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 19:50NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 14:52NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 16:50NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Ryan Hartman, Colton Sissons · Snap, 0.12 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:13EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P1 18:25NSHKyle Turris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:58EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:18EDMEthan Bear: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson6:23
xG 1.15–0.15 (89%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Hartnell – Bonino – Jarnkrok11:16
xG 0.87–0.47 (65%)attempts 20–8goals 1–1
- Watson – Sissons – Hartman2:35
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Watson – Sissons – Arvidsson6:51
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis16:41
xG 1.23–0.68 (64%)attempts 24–16goals 1–0
- Subban – Ekholm18:08
xG 1.31–0.99 (57%)attempts 26–19goals 1–1
- Emelin – Weber12:16
xG 0.75–0.49 (61%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Aberg – Draisaitl8:49
xG 0.71–0.23 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Pakarinen – Khaira – Caggiula7:57
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Strome – Aberg – Puljujarvi3:03
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Kassian – Draisaitl3:23
xG 0.03–0.27 (9%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Benning15:07
xG 0.79–0.54 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Klefbom – Bear2:25
xG 0.03–0.17 (14%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Sekera – Bear10:16
xG 0.24–0.70 (25%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).