Fri, Mar 2, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Montréal Canadiens 6, New York Islanders 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 15 | 210 | 310 | 625 |
| NYI | 114 | 211 | 010 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Jonathan Drouin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 19:54NYITanner FritzAssists: Brock Nelson, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 2:17MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–1
- P2 4:23NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Nick Leddy · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 10:31MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Mike Reilly · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 19:56NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Andrew Ladd · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 8:10MTLPaul ByronGWGAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Jacob de la Rose · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 9:53MTLNoah JuulsenAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Mike Reilly · Slap, 0.03 xG5–3
- P3 19:11MTLAlex GalchenyukENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:15MTLMike Reilly: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:01MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:50NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:57NYIBrock Nelson: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:48MTLByron Froese: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:53NYIMathew Barzal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:10MTLAndrew Shaw: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – de la Rose – Scherbak8:15
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Galchenyuk – Drouin10:13
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Froese – Shaw – Carr5:07
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Danault – Lehkonen9:39
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Reilly11:23
xG 0.60–0.23 (72%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Petry – Alzner3:08
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Alzner – Juulsen12:29
xG 0.48–0.37 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Nelson – Fritz2:28
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Tavares – Barzal – Beauvillier2:30
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee2:16
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Barzal – Beauvillier8:29
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Pelech7:22
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Leddy – Aho2:52
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hickey – Pulock10:33
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).