Fri, Mar 2, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 1, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 011 | 05 | 125 |
| FLA | 211 | 29 | 010 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25FLAMike MathesonAssists: Jamie McGinn, Jared McCann · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 5:34BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Victor Antipin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 16:41FLAAaron EkbladGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 6:49FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Evgenii Dadonov · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 11:16FLAColton SceviourAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 16:37BUFJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:37FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:42FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:47FLANick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:12FLAAlexander Petrovic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:50BUFJohan Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:07BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:14BUFJordan Nolan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:14FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:38BUFNathan Beaulieu: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:38BUFNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:38FLAColton Sceviour: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:38BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:38FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:38BUFJustin Falk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:38FLAAlexander Petrovic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:38FLAMicheal Haley: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – O'Reilly – Reinhart10:21
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Josefson – Nolan – Griffith5:03
xG 0.05–0.07 (44%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Baptiste8:25
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
- Pominville – Larsson – Wilson12:55
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Ristolainen5:37
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Falk – Nelson2:59
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Nelson3:26
xG 0.09–0.04 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov12:21
xG 0.64–0.56 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley6:26
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Brickley – Trocheck – Huberdeau10:32
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- McGinn – McCann – Mamin8:23
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Weegar16:41
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad16:32
xG 0.63–0.50 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Matheson12:34
xG 0.24–0.54 (31%)attempts 5–15goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).