Fri, Mar 2, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 013 | 115 | 214 | 11 | 443 |
| VAN | 111 | 110 | 16 | 00 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Daniel Sedin · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 15:04VANBrandon SutterAssists: Brock Boeser, Darren Archibald · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 17:26NSHMike FisherAssists: Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 10:02NSHKevin FialaAssists: Kyle Turris, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 11:54VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
- P3 17:45NSHRyan EllisAssists: P.K. Subban, Calle Jarnkrok · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 0:43NSHCalle JarnkrokGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:49NSHAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:11NSHRyan Hartman: Holding2 min
- P1 11:29VANMichael Del Zotto: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:44NSHMiikka Salomaki: Interference2 min
- P3 1:08VANAlexander Edler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:28NSHRyan Johansen: Spearing5 min · PPG
- P3 9:28VANBrandon Sutter: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:28NSHRyan Johansen: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Jarnkrok – Salomaki6:13
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Fisher – Watson – Sissons6:22
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:21
xG 0.40–0.35 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Bonino – Forsberg – Arvidsson2:26
xG 0.05–0.01 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Bitetto7:58
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm16:58
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 25–6goals 0–0
- Emelin – Subban13:30
xG 0.77–0.96 (45%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Goldobin6:09
xG 0.52–0.05 (91%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Baertschi – Virtanen3:59
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Gagner – Leipsic – Virtanen2:06
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sutter – Archibald – Motte8:54
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPouliot – Hutton12:03
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Stecher17:39
xG 0.53–0.66 (44%)attempts 14–26goals 1–0
- Edler – Gudbranson14:45
xG 0.41–1.10 (27%)attempts 8–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).