Fri, Mar 2, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 112 | 010 | 114 | 236 |
| ANA | 112 | 214 | 19 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:28CBJSonny MilanoAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P1 14:06ANARickard RakellAssists: Corey Perry, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 11:17ANAAndrew CoglianoSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 12:44ANAJosh MansonGWGAssists: Francois Beauchemin · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 16:05ANACam FowlerAssists: Adam Henrique, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 17:43CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:12CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:16ANAJason Chimera: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:45CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 10:35ANAJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P2 13:04ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:04CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:04ANARyan Kesler: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:04ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:36ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:36CBJIan Cole: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Bjorkstrand – Milano7:54
xG 0.97–0.10 (91%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Bjorkstrand – Panarin – Dubois2:18
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Letestu – Calvert – Sedlak5:10
xG 0.02–0.26 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Vanek – Dubinsky – Jenner7:21
xG 0.17–0.48 (27%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Savard10:55
xG 0.83–0.65 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray12:28
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Jones – Werenski16:26
xG 0.67–1.36 (33%)attempts 15–21goals 2–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:25
xG 0.65–0.21 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Grant – Rakell9:48
xG 0.76–0.35 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Chimera – Kelly – Vermette6:20
xG 0.60–0.48 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase9:21
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Montour13:09
xG 1.30–0.48 (73%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Manson – Lindholm17:31
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Pettersson8:16
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).