Sat, Mar 3, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 7 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 314 | 111 | 214 | 04 | 0 | 643 |
| TBL | 16 | 210 | 315 | 04 | 2 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:08PHINolan PatrickPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 8:16TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 14:30PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Nolan Patrick · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 18:07PHIRobert HaggAssists: Scott Laughton, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 5:57TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 12:47TBLDan GirardiAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 16:15PHIJori LehteraAssists: Jordan Weal, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 1:06PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–3
- P3 4:23TBLJ.T. MillerAssists: Yanni Gourde, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–4
- P3 7:38TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.12 xG5–5
- P3 10:03TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.05 xG5–6
- P3 17:07PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–6
Shootout
- 1. TBL Cory Conacher stopped
- 2. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 4. PHI Nolan Patrick stopped
- 5. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:22TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:54PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:02TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:16TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:16PHIAndrew MacDonald: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:26TBLBrayden Point: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:49TBLAnthony Cirelli: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:37TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Lindblom – Patrick11:49
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Filppula – Lehtera – Weal7:46
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 2–2
- Giroux – Couturier – Patrick3:10
xG 0.06–0.02 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Leier – Raffl9:24
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas14:21
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov16:36
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- MacDonald – Hagg16:48
xG 0.45–0.94 (32%)attempts 10–25goals 2–3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Kucherov12:52
xG 0.47–0.12 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 4–1
- Miller – Gourde – Point14:28
xG 0.47–0.30 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Callahan – Cirelli7:19
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Conacher – Erne9:14
xG 0.16–0.61 (21%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman13:59
xG 0.48–0.29 (63%)attempts 7–11goals 3–2
- Coburn – Sustr15:01
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Coburn – Stralman2:07
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).