Sat, Mar 3, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 115 | 113 | 00 | 237 |
| DAL | 06 | 114 | 111 | 13 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:04DALTyler PitlickAssists: Antoine Roussel · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 13:06STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Vince Dunn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 12:43STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 17:04DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.27 xG2–2
- OT 3:04DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:11STLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:11DALAntoine Roussel: Instigator2 min
- P1 0:11DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:11STLChris Thorburn: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:11DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P1 1:51DALEsa Lindell: Delaying game2 min
- P1 5:02DALBrett Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P1 5:02STLPatrik Berglund: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:26DALMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:59STLScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:38DALGreg Pateryn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Jaskin9:59
xG 1.01–0.38 (73%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Sobotka – Berglund – Thompson4:23
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz2:39
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Sobotka – Berglund3:21
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Dunn5:26
xG 0.71–0.46 (61%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Parayko – Dunn4:07
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo4:20
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Ritchie2:12
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin2:34
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Radulov – Shore – Janmark13:13
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin9:16
xG 0.39–0.47 (46%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell18:05
xG 1.47–0.95 (61%)attempts 18–24goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn11:52
xG 0.82–0.80 (51%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Methot – Johns11:28
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).