Sat, Mar 3, 2018·Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, AnnapolisOutdoor game
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Washington Capitals 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 112 | 010 | 229 |
| WSH | 312 | 218 | 04 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 5:20TORZach HymanAssists: Roman Polak · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 6:19WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Wilson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 16:20WSHNicklas BackstromPPGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–3
- P2 7:22TORNazem KadriAssists: Patrick Marleau, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 8:05WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–4
- P2 10:49WSHJakub VranaAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:43TORTravis Dermott: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:20WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:28TORDominic Moore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 18:58WSHMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Komarov – Kadri6:44
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Kapanen6:29
xG 0.12–0.06 (69%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Plekanec – Brown2:25
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Moore – Komarov – Kapanen4:56
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Rielly – Dermott2:44
xG 0.01–0.04 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Polak – Dermott12:37
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev20:19
xG 0.71–0.95 (43%)attempts 27–18goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson14:58
xG 1.12–0.60 (65%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana12:10
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson10:23
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky10:25
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov19:02
xG 1.20–0.44 (73%)attempts 15–21goals 2–1
- Carlson – Kempny17:16
xG 0.96–0.32 (75%)attempts 19–17goals 1–1
- Orpik – Djoos12:17
xG 0.21–0.50 (30%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).