Sat, Mar 3, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New York Rangers 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 222 | 04 | 334 |
| EDM | 06 | 216 | 015 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:54NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, John Gilmour · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:43EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Matt Benning, Cam Talbot · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:51NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 9:07NYRPaul CareyGWGAssists: Cody McLeod, David Desharnais · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 16:48EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:48EDMZack Kassian: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:00EDMCam Talbot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 4:33NYRNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:33NYRMarc Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:42EDMMichael Cammalleri: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Desharnais – Carey7:07
xG 0.94–0.16 (86%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Namestnikov – Vesey11:04
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich11:27
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Spooner – Hayes – Fast12:30
xG 0.58–0.68 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Gara – DeAngelo14:28
xG 1.03–0.48 (68%)attempts 24–12goals 1–1
- Skjei – Gilmour13:36
xG 0.77–0.47 (62%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Staal – Pionk18:34
xG 0.37–0.96 (28%)attempts 8–24goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Draisaitl – McDavid16:16
xG 1.03–0.51 (67%)attempts 23–11goals 1–1
- Cammalleri – Nugent-Hopkins – Aberg9:39
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Kassian – Pakarinen – Khaira6:40
xG 0.07–0.60 (10%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Strome – Slepyshev – Puljujarvi11:41
xG 0.32–1.05 (24%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Bear9:08
xG 0.84–0.29 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Sekera – Benning10:30
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Sekera – Bear3:26
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).