Sun, Mar 4, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Vegas Golden Knights 3, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 315 | 04 | 327 |
| NJD | 011 | 215 | 09 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:39VGKDavid PerronAssists: Tomas Hyka, Jon Merrill · Snap, 0.35 xG1–0
- P2 8:44NJDSami VatanenPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Patrick Maroon · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 11:17VGKDeryk EngellandAssists: Shea Theodore, Ryan Reaves · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 17:43VGKTomas TatarPPGWGAssists: David Perron, Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.46 xG3–1
- P2 17:55NJDTaylor HallUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:12NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:31VGKJonathan Marchessault: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:21VGKJon Merrill: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:33NJDTaylor Hall: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 19:56VGKBrayden McNabb: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault14:18
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Perron – Haula – Hyka9:16
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carpenter – Nosek9:34
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Perron – Haula – Carpenter2:05
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore18:02
xG 0.65–0.46 (59%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- McNabb – Miller18:05
xG 0.66–0.61 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Merrill – Hunt11:55
xG 0.51–0.61 (46%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Wood – Zacha10:23
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Zajac – Grabner – Maroon12:19
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier12:09
xG 0.43–0.71 (38%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Coleman6:13
xG 0.25–0.62 (29%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson17:55
xG 0.85–0.39 (69%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher10:45
xG 0.59–0.60 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Greene – Vatanen16:40
xG 0.22–0.79 (22%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).