Sun, Mar 4, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Winnipeg Jets 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 14 | 110 | 323 |
| CAR | 110 | 017 | 18 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:40WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Joe Morrow · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:31CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Justin Faulk · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 2:37WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Paul Stastny, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 10:06WPGPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Ben Chiarot, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 15:48CARJordan StaalAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Brock McGinn · Snap, 0.26 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:32CARJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:26WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:31CARSebastian Aho: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:57WPGMatt Hendricks: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:27WPGDmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Ehlers – Laine9:37
xG 0.84–0.60 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Armia – Copp8:10
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor12:08
xG 0.47–0.50 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Little – Perreault – Roslovic10:55
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Morrow8:47
xG 0.59–0.42 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Chiarot2:51
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Myers – Kulikov16:45
xG 0.41–0.48 (47%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Di Giuseppe – Wallmark4:15
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Lindholm – Aho12:38
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Williams – Staal – McGinn12:40
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Rask – Ryan5:42
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hanifin15:10
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin16:34
xG 0.91–0.78 (54%)attempts 21–17goals 2–2
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury11:46
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).