Sun, Mar 4, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 210 | 16 | 112 | 428 |
| SJS | 010 | 110 | 115 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:12CBJNick FolignoAssists: Matt Calvert, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:01CBJSonny MilanoAssists: Boone Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Slap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 5:32CBJArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Ian Cole, Cam Atkinson · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 18:22SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Evander Kane · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 10:04SJSEvander KaneAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 19:07CBJArtemi PanarinENAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:02CBJNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:09CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 15:07CBJZach Werenski: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:26SJSJoakim Ryan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:09CBJIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:25SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Foligno won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Dubinsky – Letestu – Calvert5:46
xG 0.08–0.03 (70%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Panarin – Dubois2:39
xG 0.02–0.01 (77%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Vanek – Jenner – Wennberg6:52
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois9:31
xG 0.42–0.68 (38%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard2:49
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 2–0
- Cole – Savard10:50
xG 0.30–0.44 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Johnson – Murray12:25
xG 0.22–0.66 (25%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Kane – Donskoi10:43
xG 1.18–0.15 (89%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Couture – Boedker – Meier6:55
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Tierney – Labanc – Meier3:09
xG 0.27–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Fehr – Goodrow – Karlsson7:44
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon3:22
xG 0.47–0.14 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Ryan13:16
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic2:06
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).