Mon, Mar 5, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
New York Islanders 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 115 | 17 | 111 | 01 | 334 |
| VAN | 06 | 28 | 17 | 12 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Anders Lee, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 2:59NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Thomas Hickey, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 14:25VANBrendan LeipsicAssists: Jake Virtanen, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 15:59VANDarren ArchibaldUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–2
- P3 10:31VANJake VirtanenAssists: Brendan Leipsic · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 18:56NYIJordan EberlePPAssists: John Tavares, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–3
- OT 2:47VANBrendan LeipsicGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:11VANBrendan Leipsic: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:36NYIMathew Barzal: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:41VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:52VANBrendan Leipsic: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:59NYIJohnny Boychuk: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 18:01VANBrendan Leipsic: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Barzal – Beauvillier12:14
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Wagner10:06
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Ladd – Nelson – Fritz10:02
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee9:19
xG 0.38–0.80 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy15:15
xG 0.55–0.24 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Hickey – Pulock13:41
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Davidson – Pelech16:23
xG 0.27–0.83 (24%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLeipsic – Horvat – Virtanen7:11
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Jokinen4:52
xG 0.37–0.26 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Goldobin – Boeser6:51
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Gagner – Virtanen2:27
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Pouliot14:02
xG 0.86–0.27 (76%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Pouliot – Hutton3:31
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton9:19
xG 0.36–0.25 (60%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).