Tue, Mar 6, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 5, Boston Bruins 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 214 | 112 | 00 | 535 |
| BOS | 314 | 210 | 011 | 12 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37BOSTorey KrugAssists: Nick Holden, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 0:52BOSJake DeBruskUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 2:16DETFrans NielsenPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 7:53DETMike GreenAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P1 13:48BOSTorey KrugPPAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 3:27BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 12:05DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Mike Green, Tyler Bertuzzi · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–4
- P2 13:18BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Riley Nash · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–5
- P2 15:50DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 9:46DETMartin FrkAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–5
- OT 0:34BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Riley Nash · Backhand, 0.24 xG5–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:10BOSTommy Wingels: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:08DETNick Jensen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:48BOSDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:12DETLuke Witkowski: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:45DETJonathan Ericsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:45BOSDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:15DETMike Green: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:03BOSBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min
- P2 17:35DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:35BOSRiley Nash: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:05BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:38DETLuke Witkowski: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:41BOSSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Mantha – Larkin10:06
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Helm – Athanasiou4:48
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi10:56
xG 0.16–0.49 (25%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green2:32
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser12:59
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
- Kronwall – Jensen9:19
xG 0.17–0.52 (25%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Nash – Pastrnak8:56
xG 0.86–0.09 (90%)attempts 15–3goals 2–0
- Gionta – Backes – Heinen8:23
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Krejci – DeBrusk8:22
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Wingels – Kuraly – Schaller7:48
xG 0.20–0.62 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Krug11:55
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk10:49
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller3:57
xG 0.05–0.20 (21%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).