Tue, Mar 6, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 09 | 211 | 231 |
| MIN | 19 | 415 | 17 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35MINEric StaalPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:23MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mikko Koivu · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 2:23MINZach ParisePPGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 3:36MINDaniel WinnikAssists: Jonas Brodin, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 3:51MINEric StaalAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
- P3 9:23CARPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Jeff Skinner · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 14:46MINMatt CullenAssists: Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.10 xG1–6
- P3 18:19CARDerek RyanPPAssists: Victor Rask, Noah Hanifin · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:48CARVictor Rask: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:13MINJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:17MINJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:31CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:34MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe11:04
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Stempniak – McGinn – Wallmark2:15
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Wallmark – Ryan8:44
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Lindholm – Aho12:06
xG 0.41–0.65 (38%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin5:58
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury8:54
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin9:56
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 17–12goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Niederreiter11:24
xG 0.89–0.33 (73%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Winnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek11:20
xG 0.57–0.08 (87%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Coyle11:05
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund13:36
xG 0.54–0.57 (48%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:15
xG 1.16–0.41 (74%)attempts 17–16goals 2–1
- Prosser – Olofsson15:55
xG 0.81–0.07 (92%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba19:39
xG 0.57–0.86 (40%)attempts 18–25goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).