Tue, Mar 6, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Washington Capitals 0, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 014 | 015 | 036 |
| ANA | 27 | 17 | 14 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24ANAAdam HenriquePPGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 13:15ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Josh Manson, Jakob Silfverberg · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 5:37ANARickard RakellAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Josh Manson · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 18:34ANANick RitchieENAssists: Adam Henrique, Kevin Bieksa · Backhand, 0.74 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:36WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:04ANAKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
- P1 17:24ANANick Ritchie: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:05WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:05ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:41ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson14:04
xG 0.82–0.31 (73%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson7:55
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana9:50
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky11:07
xG 0.25–0.72 (26%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov17:35
xG 0.89–0.40 (69%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Orpik – Djoos9:55
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Carlson – Djoos2:47
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell12:02
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase12:14
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Chimera – Kelly – Grant6:35
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:30
xG 0.21–0.64 (24%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Montour17:42
xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 19–19goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm16:03
xG 0.66–0.71 (48%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Pettersson11:35
xG 0.23–0.61 (28%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).