Wed, Mar 7, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 310 | 17 | 528 |
| PHI | 08 | 211 | 09 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:35PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 2:07PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Nolan Patrick · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 5:59PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Claude Giroux, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 9:24PITJamie OleksiakAssists: Justin Schultz, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 14:25PITConor ShearyGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jamie Oleksiak · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 19:20PITConor ShearyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 18:19PITEvgeni MalkinENAssists: Carl Hagelin, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.58 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:14PHIJori Lehtera: Holding2 min
- P1 8:28PHIRobert Hagg: Boarding2 min
- P1 9:39PITPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:29PHIAndrew MacDonald: Interference2 min
- P1 14:01PITJustin Schultz: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:46PHIOskar Lindblom: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:29PITRiley Sheahan: Interference2 min
- P2 16:33PITJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:03PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00PITJamie Oleksiak: Head butting double minor4 min
- P3 0:00PHIBrandon Manning: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin7:24
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary6:03
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel3:03
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Simon3:05
xG 0.03–0.21 (12%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksiak11:52
xG 0.89–0.18 (84%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:51
xG 0.82–0.75 (52%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Maatta – Ruhwedel12:25
xG 0.39–0.95 (29%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Lindblom – Patrick8:15
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny9:37
xG 0.66–0.41 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Laughton – Raffl5:45
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal9:24
xG 0.05–0.44 (11%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hagg13:07
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
- Gostisbehere – Provorov13:40
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas12:04
xG 0.33–0.78 (30%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).